Is the Economy Actually Contracting or Not?
September 26th, 2022
Is the U.S. Economy Actually Shrinking? Official statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show the US economy contracted by -1.6% in the first quarter and then again by -0.9% in Q2.1 Technically speaking, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth meets the technical definition of an economic recession, but whether or not the U.S.Read Entire Article…
A Wild Year for the Global Energy Markets
September 26th, 2022
A Wild and Eventful Year for the Global Energy Markets At the beginning of 2022, the American benchmark for crude oil prices – West Texas Intermediate – was trading around $80 a barrel. Then the war happened, which sent oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel and had many analysts predicting that $200 a barrelRead Entire Article…
Our Outlook For International Stocks
August 5th, 2022
The Outlook for International Stocks Global stocks have come under pressure in the first half of 2022. The war in Ukraine has created volatility and uncertainty in the energy markets, and inflation is rising around the world – not just in the US. To make matters even more challenging, China instituted strict lockdowns in majorRead Entire Article…
How Does the Current Tech Selloff Compare to the Dot-Com Bubble?
June 30th, 2022
Is the Technology-Led Selloff Another Bubble Bursting? Pronounced market volatility during the week of June 13 caused broad U.S. stocks (S&P 500) to post their biggest weekly decline in two years. For the June declines and 2022 as a whole, technology stocks have led on the way down. In April, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite indexRead Entire Article…
What Does a Strong U.S. Dollar Mean for the Markets?
June 17th, 2022
A strong dollar is great for U.S. consumers, but not a reliable indicator for investors. The U.S. dollar has spent most of 2022 strengthening. Through the end of May, the U.S. Dollar Index – which tracks the dollar against a basket of developed foreign currencies – was up 6% year-to-date and is up over 12%Read Entire Article…
Analyzing the ‘Recession Trade’ that surfaced in May
June 3rd, 2022
Inside the ‘Recession Trade’ that Surfaced in May The month of May has been characterized by selling pressure across just about every asset class, and a closer look shows investors shifting into a defensive crouch. By Friday, May 20, the broad market as measured by the S&P 500 was off by -6.4%, the tech-heavy NasdaqRead Entire Article…
Are Bonds Still A Good Volatility Hedge?
May 20th, 2022
Are Bonds No Longer a Good Volatility Hedge? Most readers are aware of the ongoing volatility in the stock market. Generally speaking, selling pressure in the stock market should mean that bonds – and in particular U.S. Treasuries – are holding their own and maybe even zigging where stocks are zagging. But that has notRead Entire Article…
Can Fed Raise Rates Without Triggering a Recession?
May 13th, 2022
Can the Federal Reserve Raise Rates Without Triggering a Recession? The Federal Reserve is firmly on the path of tightening monetary policy in 2022. The question is whether they get it right. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next month, market-watchers expect the Fed to raise the benchmark fed funds rate byRead Entire Article…